Agriculture

Farm income in 2026 depended on Beijing and on federal payments. Under the October 2025 Busan arrangement China committed to buy at least 25 million metric tons of US soybeans in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028 (White House), and traders said in September that China was on pace to meet the soybean target, though not its wider farm-purchase pledge (Reuters). The truce that underpins those purchases runs only to 10 January 2027. Tariffs on fertilizer, machinery and steel raised input costs. Democrats flipped Senate seats in farm states including Iowa and Kansas (NPR). Farm programs need another extension in the lame duck.

The midterms alter the bargaining over farm support while leaving its main instruments with the executive. A farm bill or extension now needs Democratic votes, which brings nutrition programs and conservation spending back into the bargain. A Democratic Congress will scrutinize how USDA allocated bridge payments and whether they compensated farmers for tariff losses the administration caused. It cannot set Chinese purchase volumes, lift tariffs on inputs or change USMCA terms.

The executive controls the variables that matter most to farm income: the China truce and whether it is extended in January, tariff relief on fertilizer and machinery, the Canada and Mexico negotiations, and USDA's discretionary payment authority under the Commodity Credit Corporation. A president who lost farm-state seats has reason to deliver visible wins, including a China extension and a Canada deal that Trump has framed as good for farmers; he told Fox News that Canada would supply fertilizer tariff-free, though Canada does not levy export tariffs on fertilizer (The Canadian Press).

For agribusiness, the outlook depends on the China and Canada decisions in the next ten weeks, which link this section to the trade and China sections. Beef and other imports from Argentina and Brazil, the Brazil relationship and immigration enforcement on farms will draw oversight but not new law.