Iran war

The United States and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening strikes; his son Mojtaba was named successor and has not appeared in public since (CBS News). A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire on 8 April 2026 was followed by talks in Islamabad, Switzerland and Doha and by renewed US strikes in July (Dawn). Iran responded with strikes on Israel and on Gulf states that host US bases, Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and the Houthis have struck Saudi airports and energy sites (Reuters). Major fighting stopped weeks ago, but on 2 November 2026 US forces struck surface-to-air missile sites on Qeshm and Hengam islands and near Bandar Abbas, the first known US attacks since early September, and Trump confirmed further strikes on Qeshm on 4 November; another aircraft carrier is heading to the region (AP; AP; Dawn). Iran says it has a two-day plan to reopen the strait, and it has tied reopening to seven conditions, including an end to the US blockade, the lifting of oil sanctions, the release of frozen assets, war reparations and a halt to hostilities across the region; on 4 November it called the US reply "not convincing" (Türkiye Today).

The war cost Republicans votes. Trump told Fox News that "a part of it was Iran" and told the Wall Street Journal he did not regret the war and "would have done it again" (Reuters; CBS News). Congress has voted on the war repeatedly. The House adopted a concurrent resolution directing removal of US forces 220–204 on 15 September 2026, and the Senate rejected it 49–50 on 24 September 2026 (US Senate; The New York Times). In the new Congress such a resolution is likely to pass both chambers. A concurrent resolution does not go to the president, and its legal force is contested after the Supreme Court's 1983 Chadha ruling, so Democrats are likely to pair it with a joint resolution that Trump would veto. The more consequential tools are funding limits on new offensive operations, mandatory reporting on costs and objectives, and hearings with commanders. Democrats are unlikely to cut off funds for forces already deployed.

The president still decides whether to strike. He told the Financial Times on the eve of the vote that he had no immediate plan for new attacks and that "we're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it" (CBS News). Regional officials say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, now a caretaker after losing his majority in the 27 October 2026 Knesset election, has pressed for another wave of strikes after the US vote (AP). Some Gulf governments believe Trump now has more reason to seek a deal (Reuters), and Trump announced on election day that $4 billion in annual US funding for Israel would stop after this year, while weapons sales would continue (Reuters).

Tehran's reading cuts both ways. Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Americans had voted "NO TO WAR" and warned of a "Nightmare" if Washington ignored them, while a statement attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said anyone expecting a change in US policy was "seriously mistaken" (NPR). Senior Iranian officials told Reuters before the vote that Tehran had prolonged talks to weaken Trump politically, and two senior Iranian sources said Tehran remained on high alert for a strike intended to compensate for the defeat (Reuters). Iran's options are to bank a deal that lifts the blockade while Trump wants one, or to hold out for terms that include sanctions relief and recognition of a role in Hormuz. The Revolutionary Guards said on 4 November that four tankers had caught fire after hitting mines in the strait, which keeps physical risk high (CBS News).

The probability of a settlement has risen, and so has the probability of a short, sharp escalation by a president seeking leverage before the new Congress constrains war funding. For shipping and insurance the strait remains effectively closed until a deal lifts the blockade and Iran's attacks stop together. China, Iran's main oil customer, has called avoiding a resumption of hostilities its "top priority" and will send its Middle East envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia this month (CBS News). The links to oil prices, Gulf security and US fuel politics are treated in the energy and cross-cutting sections.