Ukraine war

The administration's approach to the war in 2026 combined pressure on Kyiv with relief for Moscow. Trump largely halted direct US financial and military aid, while European allies bought US weapons for Ukraine through NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (Reuters). In October US officials threatened to suspend PURL deliveries and intelligence sharing in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, a threat that was not carried out (Bloomberg). Ukraine's most pressing need is Patriot interceptors to protect cities and energy infrastructure this winter (Reuters). Congress passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which the president signed in September, and on 16 October 2026 Trump issued an executive order using the act's national-interest waiver to suspend its new sanctions and tariffs, including duties on major buyers of Russian oil, and authorized Russian diesel sales (White House; The New York Times).

Diplomacy restarts next week. The Kremlin confirmed on 3 November that Russia, Ukraine and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November, the first direct three-way talks since February; US officials say the meeting follows talks that special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held with Zelensky and Putin (Axios; The Hill; Seoul Economic Daily). Russia still demands the rest of Donbas, and fighting continues; a Russian aerial-bomb attack on an aid center in Komyshuvakha, in the Zaporizhzhia region, killed at least 31 people on 2 November (BBC). The White House has also announced that First Lady Melania Trump will host Russian and Ukrainian representatives on 5 November to mark a local ceasefire in Oleshky that she helped arrange (White House).

The Graham Act episode shows what a Democratic Congress can and cannot do. It can pass aid and sanctions bills, and Ukraine aid could approach veto-proof margins if enough Republicans back it, but any package will take months and will not solve the immediate shortage of interceptors (Reuters). Gregory Meeks, a candidate to chair House Foreign Affairs, has introduced a bipartisan bill to block the Russian diesel plan. It cannot stop the president from waiving sanctions where the statute lets him, set the US negotiating position, or order intelligence sharing. Its strongest new tool is the power to write narrower waivers into future sanctions law and to tie them to appropriations the administration needs.

Moscow and Kyiv read the result differently. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was "sincerely counting on" Trump continuing his "peacemaking efforts," and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called the Democrats' approach to Russia "extremely negative" (Reuters; NPR). Ukrainian bonds rallied on 4 November (Bloomberg). Russia's incentive is to lock in terms in Abu Dhabi while Trump controls the US position, and Ukraine's is to slow-walk concessions until a Democratic Congress can supply aid and constrain sanctions relief.

In our assessment the most likely near-term path is that Trump presses for a framework before the new Congress sits, using sanctions relief and business deals as inducements, possibly with a meeting with Putin in Shenzhen. European governments, which are trying to fill a €70 billion gap in Ukraine's 2027 financing, are planning on the assumption that US money will not return (AFP). Energy markets will treat any deal that brings Russian barrels back as bearish for diesel, which links this section to energy markets.