Africa

US policy toward Africa in 2025–26 was defined by aid cuts and transactional deals. USAID was dismantled and AGOA was extended only through 31 December 2026 (Reuters). On 2 November the administration said it would suspend South Africa, the program's largest beneficiary, and Rwanda from AGOA from January 2027 (Reuters). South Africa was also excluded from G20 meetings hosted by the United States this year (eNCA), and the Treasury sanctioned Rwanda's defense ministry in late October for undermining the US-brokered Congo peace agreement by backing M23 (BBC). Minerals deals in Congo, Zambia and Angola and the Lobito Corridor have been the administration's main positive agenda.

Congress holds two levers that matter for Africa. It writes AGOA, and any renewal beyond 2026 needs a statute, which gives a Democratic Congress the ability to contest South Africa's suspension or set eligibility criteria in law. It also controls foreign-aid appropriations, including PEPFAR, which Democrats are likely to try to restore in FY2027 bills. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the result would "introduce a new era in world relations" and hoped for a "coming together of minds" bilaterally (NPR).

The executive still decides AGOA eligibility under the statute, sanctions, travel bans and minerals agreements, as the 2 November suspensions show. With AGOA expiring in eight weeks and a lame-duck Republican Congress, the likeliest near-term outcome is a short extension or a lapse, followed by a renewal fight in 2027 in which South Africa's status becomes a test of congressional authority over trade preferences. For exporters in Kenya, Lesotho and South Africa, that means weeks of uncertainty over duty-free access.