Canada

The 2026 USMCA joint review ended without renewal. On 1 July 2026 US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States would not extend the agreement for another 16 years, triggering annual reviews; the agreement remains in force through 2036 (USTR; CRS). Canada faces US tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber, and Prime Minister Mark Carney ended talks in August when they collapsed at the last minute, after which US tariffs of 50% on about C$28 billion of Canadian goods took effect (The Globe and Mail). Talks resumed after a Carney-Trump call at the start of November (The Globe and Mail). On 3 November Carney said US negotiators were "asking less and they're offering more," and that Canada had taken some red lines, including language, culture and its ability to negotiate trade deals with other markets, off the table; Trump said a deal would come "very soon" (Bloomberg Tax; The Canadian Press).

A Democratic Congress has stated positions on Canada. Some Democratic leaders have vowed to repeal tariffs on Canadian goods, and the trade war became an issue in border states (The Straits Times). Congress can pass a resolution ending the national-security tariffs on Canada, but it would face a veto, and USTR runs the USMCA review process, consulting Congress. Congress does matter for any agreement that changes US law, and the annual review gives committees a recurring hearing on North American trade.

The likely effect is to strengthen Ottawa's hand at the margin. A president whose party lost a Senate seat in Maine and House seats across the northern tier has reason to close a deal that removes an electoral liability, and the Carney-Trump call before the vote suggests the White House was already moving in that direction. Canada's diversification toward the EU and Asia, and its defense spending and Golden Dome participation, remain levers in the talks. Alberta's priority is energy access and Ontario's is autos, which shapes what Ottawa can concede.

The commercial implication is a higher chance of a tariff-reduction agreement in the next three months, with steel, aluminum and autos the test. The connection to Mexico, critical minerals and the Arctic is treated in the trade and cross-cutting sections.